Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Vitoria
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 1-0)
Cruzeiro
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Estadio Manoel Barradas

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Vitoria opened at 0 against Cruzeiro in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Vitoria from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Vitoria -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Cruzeiro than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Cruzeiro +0.25
@ 2.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+16.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:02
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.95 / 1.80 -0.25 2.47 / 1.89 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.08 / 1.79 +0.25 1.87 / 1.51 0 +0.25
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.85 -0.25 2.60 / 2.00 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 2.00 / 1.85 0 2.20 / 1.70 0 0
Betano +0.25 1.70 / 1.62 +0.25 1.83 / 1.52 +0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.97 / 1.72 -0.25 2.47 / 1.90 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.25 5.55
-1.50 6.15 4.30
-1.25 5.64 3.84
-1.00 5.15 3.42
-0.75 3.52 2.56
-0.25 2.60 1.89
0 2.20 1.70
+0.25 1.76 1.52
+0.75 1.40 1.22
+1.00 1.23 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.25 4.25
-1.25 5.75 3.80
-1.00 5.25 3.45
-0.75 3.70 2.68
-0.50 3.00 2.25
-0.25 2.60 2.00
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.85 1.48
+0.50 1.62 1.38
+0.75 1.45 1.26
+1.00 1.30 1.16
+1.25 1.25 1.14
+1.50 1.21 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.73 2.18
-0.25 2.47 1.90
0 2.12 1.62
+0.25 1.77 1.46
+0.50 1.58 1.38

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.75 2.80
-0.50 3.00 2.32
-0.25 2.60 2.02
+0.25 1.83 1.52
+0.50 1.65 1.42
+0.75 1.47 1.29

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.30 5.55
-1.50 6.15 4.30
-1.25 5.65 3.84
-1.00 5.15 3.42
-0.75 3.52 2.56
-0.25 2.47 1.89
0 2.14 1.65
+0.25 1.76 1.44
+0.75 1.40 1.22
+1.00 1.23 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.88 2.80
-0.50 3.08 2.34
-0.25 2.68 2.03
0 2.25 1.69
+0.25 1.87 1.51
+0.50 1.65 1.40
+0.75 1.48 1.28
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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