Corinthians vs Fluminense Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Corinthians
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Fluminense
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Neo Quimica Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Corinthians opened at -0.25 against Fluminense in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Corinthians -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.02 / 0.85
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Corinthians -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Fluminense than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Fluminense +0.25
@ 3.04
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.85
Price Advantage
+64.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:02
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.77 / 2.89 -0.25 1.70 / 3.04 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.50 / 2.66 0 1.52 / 2.66 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 3.00 -0.25 1.80 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.89 -0.25 1.79 / 3.04 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.83 / 3.15 -0.25 1.83 / 3.15 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.96 -0.25 1.70 / 3.05 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.85 8.20
-1.25 3.42 7.70
-1.00 2.97 7.20
-0.75 2.29 4.54
-0.25 1.79 3.04
0 1.49 2.71
+0.25 1.30 2.07
+0.75 1.13 1.50
+1.00 1.03 1.30
+1.25 1.02 1.23
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.42 4.80
-0.50 2.08 3.55
-0.25 1.80 3.10
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.35 2.05
+0.50 1.27 1.72
+0.75 1.18 1.52

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.70 3.05
0 1.42 2.59
+0.25 1.31 1.99

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.15 3.65
-0.25 1.83 3.15
+0.25 1.38 2.02
+0.50 1.30 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.85 8.20
-1.25 3.42 7.70
-1.00 2.97 7.20
-0.75 2.29 4.55
-0.25 1.70 3.04
0 1.44 2.63
+0.25 1.30 1.96
+0.75 1.13 1.50
+1.00 1.03 1.30
+1.25 1.02 1.23
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.62 5.03
-0.50 2.17 3.74
-0.25 1.86 3.21
0 1.52 2.66
+0.25 1.38 2.04
+0.50 1.30 1.74
+0.75 1.20 1.53
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More