Penrhyncoch shows strong drift signals with a significant closing edge of 25.47%. The model probability of 42.86% is much higher than the market probability of 17.39%, indicating value. Main risk: The team's lower Elo rating and historical underperformance could impact their chances.
Sparta Praha's odds have been sharply repriced, but FK Jablonec's strong steam and significant closing edge of 20.11% suggest potential overreaction in the market. Main risk: Sparta Praha's superior Elo and xG metrics could still dominate the match.
🔥 날카로운 머니 시그널
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
✓닫은
✓ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.00
2026-09-12
후보 선택
@ 5.00
—
마감
@ 1.60
3Morecambe vs Brackley Town3-0
✗ 부정확
National League - North
2026-09-12
베팅Brackley Town Win
4.20
4.60
-2.1pp
75
⚡
▾
참가
11일 전
4.20
→
예상 마감
4.60
예상 CLV
-2.1pp
이유
Brackley Town has a solid closing edge of 17.1% and a model probability of 40.91%, which is significantly higher than the market probability of 23.81%. The drift signals align with potential value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Morecambe, which could impact the outcome.
1VJS vs Inter Turku II2-1
✗ 부정확
Ykkönen
2026-09-12
베팅Inter Turku II Win
4.50
3.60
+5.6pp
75
🔥
▾
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
11일 전
4.50
→
예상 마감
3.60
예상 CLV
+5.6pp
이유
Inter Turku II has experienced a sharp odds drop from 6.0 to 4.5, with strong steam and a closing edge of 11.09 percentage points. The model probability of 33.31% is significantly higher than the market probability of 22.22%. Low volatility and sharp repricing further validate the bet. Main risk: Limited historical pattern similarity and relatively small Elo difference.
Brežice has seen a sharp odds drop from 9.5 to 6.25, with a closing edge of 11.5 percentage points and strong market steam. The model probability of 27.5% is significantly higher than the market probability of 16%. The sharp repricing and low volatility make this an attractive bet. Main risk: Brežice's significant Elo disadvantage (-168.1).
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
6.25
2026-09-12
후보 선택
@ 6.25
2026-09-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 6.25
2026-09-13
패스
Ranked 15/72 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.78). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-15
패스
Ranked 16/36 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 84.97). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-16
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=29, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=14.6h, hist_n=75, hist_clv_rate=29%)
—
마감
@ 6.85
3Auda vs Ogre UnitedVirsliga
2026-09-12
베팅Ogre United Win
8.50
7.87
+0.9pp
74
🔥
▾
참가
11일 전
8.50
→
예상 마감
7.87
예상 CLV
+0.9pp
이유
Tamworth's odds have dropped from 4.75 to 3.7, showing strong market confidence. The model probability of 35.64% exceeds the market probability of 27.03%, with a closing edge of 8.61 percentage points. The sharp repricing and low volatility further support this bet. Main risk: Tamworth's significant Elo disadvantage (-147.3).
검증 전에 철회됨
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
8.50
2026-08-02
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=58, breadth=67%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=38.0h, hist_n=164, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-09-12
후보 선택
@ 8.50
2026-09-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 8.50
2026-09-13
패스
Ranked 17/72 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-15
패스
Ranked 8/36 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-09-16
패스
Ranked 47/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.27). Main risk: N/A.
Aris Thessalonikis has experienced an odds drop from 7.0 to 5.75, indicating market confidence. The model probability of 32.28% is much higher than the market probability of 17.39%, providing a strong closing edge of 14.89 percentage points. Main risk: PAOK's higher Elo rating and historical performance.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
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○ROI 기록
베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
5.75
2026-09-12
후보 선택
@ 5.75
2026-09-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 5.75
2026-09-13
패스
Ranked 28/72 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.93). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 강한 가격 변화
🚀 강한 가격 변화
참가
11일 전
2.70
→
예상 마감
3.58
예상 CLV
-9.1pp
이유
The market has heavily steamed Zira, with odds dropping significantly from 3.9 to 2.7. However, the model probability of 29.25% is well below the market's 37.04%, indicating an overreaction. The closing edge is negative, and Zira has a slight disadvantage in both Elo and xG metrics. Main risk: Zira's home advantage and potential market sentiment driving the price.
검증 전에 철회됨
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
✓시장 추적
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
2.70
2026-09-12
후보 선택
@ 2.70
2026-09-12
검증 전에 철회됨
@ 2.70
2026-09-13
렌즈 필터
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=69, breadth=56%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=13.8h, hist_n=210, hist_clv_rate=16%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
참가
11일 전
3.75
→
예상 마감
3.72
예상 CLV
+0.2pp
이유
Silkeborg has seen strong steam with odds dropping from 4.5 to 3.75, but the model probability of 18.56% is significantly below the market's 26.67%, indicating poor value. Additionally, Silkeborg has a notable disadvantage in both Elo and xG metrics. Main risk: Potential underestimation of Silkeborg's home performance.
🔥 날카로운 머니 시그널
결정 수명주기
✓생성된 선택
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베팅 추적 타임라인
후보 선택 @
3.75
2026-09-12
후보 선택
@ 3.75
2026-09-12
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 3.75
2026-09-13
후보 선택
@ 3.60(후보 선택 3.75)
2026-09-13
업데이트된 픽으로 교체됨
@ 3.60(후보 선택 3.75)
—
마감
@ 3.72
3Kaspiy vs Aktobe1-2
✓ 정확
Premier League
2026-09-12
베팅Valuation disagreementAktobe Win
2.55
1.89
+13.7pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
⚠️ 주요 가격 변화
참가
11일 전
2.55
→
예상 마감
1.89
예상 CLV
+13.7pp
이유
Aktobe has a clear Elo advantage (+59.3) and the model probability of 35.64% is close to the market's 39.22%, suggesting value at the current odds of 2.55. The market drift has increased the odds, creating an opportunity. Main risk: Minimal xG differential and potential overestimation of Aktobe's form.
