乌拉圭 vs 佛得角

乌拉圭

Jun 21, 2026 - 22:00

2 1.90

2 0.80

佛得角

Betting Signal

模型显示: 乌拉圭 61.8%
市场显示: 乌拉圭 67.8%
差异: 6.0 pp
状态: Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers 乌拉圭 (67.8%).

乌拉圭 — market direction supports the model lean.

模型 vs 市场对比

乌拉圭

61.8% vs 67.8%

-6.0 pp

Draw

24.3% vs 22.19%

+2.1 pp

佛得角

13.9% vs 10.01%

+3.9 pp

最大偏差

乌拉圭 -6.0 pp

市场对乌拉圭的乐观程度明显高于模型。

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

优质投注站stake：新手可使用优惠码FHn2uDc1，即可获得$100现金

AI 预测

乌拉圭 61.8%

Draw 24.3%

佛得角 13.9%

由 Elo 调整泊松模拟生成，非博彩赔率。

展开完整模型数据

Poisson 进球线概率

盘口	大	小
0.5	91.9%	8.1%
1.5	76.5%	23.5%
2.5	50.6%	49.4%
3.5	28.6%	71.4%
4.5	13.7%	86.3%

比赛走势预期

大 2.5 球

50.6%

Balanced

小 2.5 球

49.4%

双方进球

48.3%

Balanced

可能零封

51.7%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 48.3% · No 51.7% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

最可能比分

比分	概率
2-0	12.1%
1-1	11.6%
1-0	11.4%
2-1	9.7%
0-0	8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 12.1% (exact-score variance remains high).

常见问题

How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

比赛阶段: 已完赛

决策生命周期

当前阶段: 等待 CLV

预测已生成
市场已对比

入场待定
验证通过
收盘已记录

收盘 1.44
CLV 已评估

CLV 待定等待 CLV 计算

返回今日预测