海地 vs 苏格兰

海地

Jun 14, 2026 - 01:00

0 2.16

1 0.54

苏格兰

Betting Signal

模型显示: 海地 74.0%
市场显示: 苏格兰 16.3%
差异: 57.7 pp
状态: Market disagrees with model

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers 苏格兰 (16.3%).

This creates a conflict: Model → 海地, Market → 苏格兰, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

模型 vs 市场对比

海地

74.0% vs 16.3%

+57.7 pp

Draw

19.1% vs 21.03%

-1.9 pp

苏格兰

6.8% vs 62.68%

-55.9 pp

最大偏差

海地 +57.7 pp

模型对海地的乐观程度明显高于市场。

The model and market differ by more than 57.7 percentage points. This often indicates rating-source issues, team mapping errors, missing strength inputs, or invalid assumptions. Review underlying data before interpreting the comparison.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Data Integrity Review Required

Extreme model-market divergence detected. The model and market differ by 57.7 percentage points. Review underlying rating inputs and team mapping before interpreting this comparison.

AI 预测

海地 74.0%

Draw 19.1%

苏格兰 6.8%

由 Elo 调整泊松模拟生成，非博彩赔率。

展开完整模型数据

Poisson 进球线概率

盘口	大	小
0.5	92.3%	7.7%
1.5	76.1%	23.9%
2.5	50.6%	49.4%
3.5	28.6%	71.4%
4.5	13.7%	86.3%

比赛走势预期

大 2.5 球

50.6%

Balanced

小 2.5 球

49.4%

双方进球

37.8%

Likely

可能零封

62.2%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS No 62.2% — at least one zero-scoreline cell carries 62.2% of joint mass.

最可能比分

比分	概率
2-0	15.7%
1-0	13.5%
3-0	11.3%
1-1	8.8%
2-1	8.4%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 15.7% (exact-score variance remains high).

常见问题

How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

比赛阶段: 已完赛

决策生命周期

当前阶段: 等待 CLV

预测已生成
市场已对比

入场待定
验证通过
收盘已记录

收盘 6.0
CLV 已评估

CLV 待定等待 CLV 计算

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