Dobrovice vs Čáslav Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dobrovice

May 23, 2026 - 15:00

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Čáslav

1X2 ✔ Dobrovice (Value)

Match: 41.8% Dobrovice; implied 8.6%; EV 23.2%

Primary: Dobrovice — Value · EV 23.2% · Model 41.8%

Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).

Longshot — High risk value — Under 2.5 (EV 3.0%) ; Model 31.2%

High variance — not for standard staking plan sizing.

Longshot — High risk value — Draw (EV 2.8%) ; Model 25.7%

High variance — not for standard staking plan sizing.

Why The model prices Dobrovice (1X2) about 33.2 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dobrovice (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dobrovice (1X2) by about 33.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Dobrovice (1X2)	41.8	8.6	+33.2
Draw (1X2)	25.7	12.9	+12.7
Čáslav (1X2)	32.6	78.5	-45.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Dobrovice (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.6%. The difference — about 33.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Dobrovice (1X2)	10.35	10.35
Draw (1X2)	6.86	6.86
Čáslav (1X2)	1.13	1.13

⭐ 1X2 Best value (+EV)

Dobrovice · Model 41.8%

implied 8.6%

Main consensus market · EV: 23.2%

Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 68.8% · Under 2.5 31.2%

EV Over -13.31% · EV Under 2.96%

Value lean: Under 2.5

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%

EV Yes -0.45% · EV No -12.9%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

0-2

Probability 9.7%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Decision strength: 6.5 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)

O/U 2.5: EV Over -13.31% · EV Under 2.96% (4 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -0.45% · EV No -12.9%

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 4. liga - Divizie C
Fixture: Dobrovice vs Čáslav
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Dobrovice 1.45 — Čáslav 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Dobrovice
Model: 41.8% · Implied: 8.6% · Probability edge: +33.2 pts · Est. EV: +23.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (9.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Dobrovice.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

FAQ

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 24, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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4. liga - Divizie C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Čáslav	27	20	3	4	63
2	Horní Ředice	27	17	2	8	53
3	Vysoké Mýto	27	15	7	5	52
4	Kosmonosy	27	14	6	7	48
5	Přepeře	26	15	3	8	48
6	Turnov	26	14	5	7	47
7	Trutnov	27	13	5	9	44
8	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	27	12	4	11	40
9	Spartak Police n/Metují	26	10	6	10	36
10	Hlinsko	25	11	1	13	34
11	Brandýs nad Labem	26	7	11	8	32
12	Chrudim II	27	7	6	14	27
13	Svitavy	26	6	6	14	24
14	Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou	26	5	4	17	19
15	Náchod	27	4	5	18	17
16	Dobrovice	27	3	4	20	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Čáslav	27	70	27	+43	63
2	Horní Ředice	27	65	38	+27	53
3	Kosmonosy	27	57	37	+20	48
4	Turnov	26	57	47	+10	47
5	Trutnov	27	57	49	+8	44
6	Hlinsko	25	55	54	+1	34
7	Přepeře	26	49	31	+18	48
8	Vysoké Mýto	27	46	22	+24	52
9	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	27	41	38	+3	40
10	Náchod	27	41	65	-24	17
11	Brandýs nad Labem	26	38	45	-7	32
12	Spartak Police n/Metují	26	37	45	-8	36
13	Chrudim II	27	35	51	-16	27
14	Svitavy	26	31	59	-28	24
15	Dobrovice	27	26	74	-48	13
16	Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou	26	20	43	-23	19