Igman Konjic vs Bratstvo Gračanica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Igman Konjic

May 24, 2026 - 15:30

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Bratstvo Gračanica

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (Igman Konjic vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Under 2.5
Thin edge: BTTS No (+2.7% — below default sizing bar)

Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

Best +EV (tracked markets)

BTTS No — Value

EV +2.7% Model 52.4%

Strongest +EV among tracked markets here; stricter Primary rules (e.g. minimum EV) were not met.

Why The model prices Bratstvo Gračanica (1X2) about 8.5 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bratstvo Gračanica (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bratstvo Gračanica (1X2) by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Igman Konjic (1X2)	41.8	47.9	-6.2
Draw (1X2)	25.7	28.0	-2.3
Bratstvo Gračanica (1X2)	32.6	24.1	+8.5
Over 2.5 goals	45.6	45.9	-0.3
Under 2.5 goals	54.4	54.1	+0.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Bratstvo Gračanica (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.1%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Igman Konjic (1X2)	1.85	1.85
Draw (1X2)	3.17	3.17
Bratstvo Gračanica (1X2)	3.68	3.68
Over 2.5 goals	1.99	1.99
Under 2.5 goals	1.69	1.69

Over / Under 2.5 Poor value

Over 2.5 45.6% · Under 2.5 54.4%

EV Over -8.8% · EV Under -2.1%

Value lean: Under 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Igman Konjic · Model 41.8%

implied 47.9%

Main consensus market · EV: -17.5%

Best available bookmaker line: -3.2% EV

Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 12.7%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Execution: No Primary / sized alternative at standard thresholds — other markets may still show +EV in the cards below.

Market insight: A small model–price gap may exist on marginal or high-variance legs — not a default bankroll bet; size down if you experiment. (Technical: at least one tracked line clears the +EV gate at ≥2.0% on best available odds — this does not imply a default bet.)

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: EV Over -8.8% · EV Under -2.1% (9 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -12.9% · EV No +2.7%

Should you bet on this match? Discretionary read only: +EV may appear on thin or longshot legs; compare with your limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1st League - FBiH
Fixture: Igman Konjic vs Bratstvo Gračanica
Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Igman Konjic 1.45 — Bratstvo Gračanica 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 52.4% · Implied: 49.3% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +2.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 47.6% · No 52.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: BTTS No.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 24, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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1st League - FBiH — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Čelik	23	15	7	1	52
2	Stupčanica Olovo	23	11	5	7	38
3	Jedinstvo Bihać	23	11	3	9	36
4	Radnik Hadžići	23	10	5	8	35
5	Sloboda Tuzla	23	10	4	9	34
6	TOŠK Tešanj	23	9	6	8	33
7	Travnik	23	9	6	8	33
8	GOŠK Gabela	23	9	6	8	33
9	Igman Konjic	23	9	4	10	31
10	Budućnost Banovići	23	7	6	10	27
11	Vitez	23	8	3	12	27
12	Bratstvo Gračanica	23	6	8	9	26
13	Tomislav	23	6	7	10	25
14	Tuzla City	23	5	2	16	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Čelik	23	44	17	+27	52
2	Stupčanica Olovo	23	37	22	+15	38
3	TOŠK Tešanj	23	31	25	+6	33
4	Travnik	23	30	24	+6	33
5	Radnik Hadžići	23	30	30	0	35
6	Sloboda Tuzla	23	29	27	+2	34
7	GOŠK Gabela	23	28	22	+6	33
8	Tomislav	23	28	32	-4	25
9	Igman Konjic	23	28	38	-10	31
10	Budućnost Banovići	23	26	28	-2	27
11	Vitez	23	24	31	-7	27
12	Jedinstvo Bihać	23	24	32	-8	36
13	Bratstvo Gračanica	23	22	26	-4	26
14	Tuzla City	23	19	46	-27	17