Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Avia Świdnik vs Wisłoka Dębica

Avia Świdnik vs Wisłoka Dębica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Avia Świdnik Avia Świdnik
May 23, 2026 - 15:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Wisłoka Dębica Wisłoka Dębica
1X2 ❌ No bet — no value vs. current odds
Match: 41.8% Avia Świdnik; implied 71.3%; EV -23.2%
No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.
Steam vs. value
Market momentum is strong, but current odds may already be over-adjusted. Steam detected — model value on this line may be priced out.
This match appears on the market-movement board for aggressive line repricing — not because 1X2 is currently a positive-EV bet.
📈 Steam · Wisłoka Dębica ↑ +14.3% · 10/11 · 75 A+
Market steam Strong
Current EV Negative
Closing line pressure High
Value remaining Limited
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
Why The model prices Wisłoka Dębica (1X2) about 21.7 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Wisłoka Dębica (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Wisłoka Dębica (1X2) by about 21.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Avia Świdnik (1X2) 41.8 71.3 -29.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 17.9 +7.8
Wisłoka Dębica (1X2) 32.6 10.9 +21.7
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 59.6 -9.0
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 40.4 +9.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Wisłoka Dębica (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.9%. The difference — about 21.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Avia Świdnik (1X2) 1.25 1.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.99 4.99 0.0
Wisłoka Dębica (1X2) 8.19 8.19 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.26 2.26 0.0
⭐ Both Teams To Score Best value (+EV)
Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%
EV Yes 25.77% · EV No -28.29%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Best value (+EV)
Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%
EV Over -21.06% · EV Under 17.57%
Value lean: Under 2.5
1X2 Lean
Avia Świdnik · Model 41.8%
implied 71.3%
Main consensus market · EV: -23.2%
Best available bookmaker line: +13.1% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 11.6%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 4.5 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -21.06% · EV Under 17.57% (9 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes 25.77% · EV No -28.29%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Avia Świdnik vs Wisłoka Dębica
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Avia Świdnik 1.45 — Wisłoka Dębica 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Best Bet + Reason

Skip unless odds move — the engine sees no line clearing the +EV gate.

When 1X2 is tight, prices often already embed the uncertainty — all three legs can be −EV, or show only small +EV that still fails the headline threshold — respect that when sizing.

Stake sizing should default to zero when no headline +EV exists — experimentation belongs in the discretionary bucket only.

FAQ

Is the most likely correct score still relevant?

As context only: it is still a low absolute probability tail outcome (often in the single digits, sometimes low teens). It does not override the “no headline +EV” stance — treat score bets as fun-sized if you play them at all.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 24, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

Get Premium Predictions for Avia Świdnik & Wisłoka Dębica!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 33 22 8 3 74
2 KSZO 1929 33 21 8 4 71
3 Chełmianka Chełm 33 20 9 4 69
4 Star Starachowice 33 15 10 8 55
5 Korona Kielce II 33 17 4 12 55
6 Czarni Połaniec 33 16 5 12 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 33 14 10 9 52
8 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 33 15 6 12 51
9 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 33 13 9 11 48
10 Wisłoka Dębica 33 12 12 9 48
11 Wisła Kraków II 33 14 4 15 46
12 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32 11 10 11 43
13 Naprzód 33 11 6 17 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 33 10 4 19 34
15 Stal Kraśnik 33 8 7 18 31
16 Cracovia Kraków II 33 8 6 19 30
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 33 5 5 24 20
18 Sparta KW 32 3 1 28 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 33 81 33 +48 74
2 KSZO 1929 33 64 30 +34 71
3 Wisła Kraków II 33 64 56 +8 46
4 Chełmianka Chełm 33 63 30 +33 69
5 Korona Kielce II 33 62 58 +4 55
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 33 58 44 +14 48
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 33 58 45 +13 52
8 Czarni Połaniec 33 57 46 +11 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32 53 43 +10 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 33 51 47 +4 51
11 Star Starachowice 33 50 40 +10 55
12 Naprzód 33 45 53 -8 38
13 Stal Kraśnik 33 39 52 -13 31
14 Cracovia Kraków II 33 38 66 -28 30
15 Wisłoka Dębica 33 36 33 +3 48
16 Świdniczanka Świdnik 33 36 79 -43 20
17 Sokół Kolb. 33 35 54 -19 34
18 Sparta KW 32 26 107 -81 10
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions
Popular Leagues