Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Pogoń Szczecin II vs Kluczevia Stargard

Pogoń Szczecin II vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń Szczecin II Pogoń Szczecin II
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Kluczevia Stargard Kluczevia Stargard
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pogoń Szczecin II Pogoń Szczecin II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Next AI Predictions Available Today

View Today's Football Predictions See Upcoming III Liga - Group 2 Matches Track Pogoń Szczecin II Next Match Prediction Track Kluczevia Stargard Next Match Prediction

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Kluczevia Stargard
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Szczecin II 1.45 — Kluczevia Stargard 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 64.1% · Implied: 61.0% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +2.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.8% · No 37.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Strongest +EV line among tracked markets (not shown as a full Primary under current engine thresholds): Over 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 24, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 33 24 5 4 77
2 Luzino 33 23 4 6 73
3 Polonia Środa 33 19 6 8 63
4 Lech Poznań II 33 14 7 12 49
5 Flota Świnoujście 33 14 7 12 49
6 Elana Toruń 33 14 7 12 49
7 Wda Świecie 32 14 6 12 48
8 Lipno Stęszew 33 14 6 13 48
9 Unia Swarzędz 33 13 8 12 47
10 Kluczevia Stargard 33 13 7 13 46
11 Noteć Czarnków 33 13 7 14 46
12 Stargard Szczeciński 33 11 9 13 42
13 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 33 10 9 14 39
14 Victoria Września 33 12 3 18 39
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 33 11 5 17 38
16 Pogoń Szczecin II 32 10 5 17 35
17 Tłuchowia 33 7 6 19 28
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 33 3 6 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 33 76 37 +39 73
2 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 33 71 23 +48 77
3 Lech Poznań II 33 66 52 +14 49
4 Polonia Środa 33 65 42 +23 63
5 Pogoń Szczecin II 32 58 64 -6 35
6 Stargard Szczeciński 33 53 51 +2 42
7 Kluczevia Stargard 33 52 40 +12 46
8 Flota Świnoujście 33 48 49 -1 49
9 Elana Toruń 33 47 50 -3 49
10 Noteć Czarnków 33 46 45 +1 46
11 Unia Swarzędz 33 44 37 +7 47
12 Lipno Stęszew 33 43 51 -8 48
13 Wda Świecie 32 42 50 -8 48
14 Victoria Września 33 39 45 -6 39
15 Cartusia Kartuzy 33 38 49 -11 38
16 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 33 34 44 -10 39
17 Tłuchowia 33 32 64 -32 28
18 Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal 33 19 80 -61 15
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions
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