Wasilków vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wasilków

May 16, 2026 - 11:00

0 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 42%

Wigry Suwałki

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Wasilków Wigry Suwałki ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

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AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 1
Fixture: Wasilków vs Wigry Suwałki
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Wasilków 1.45 — Wigry Suwałki 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 48.0% · Implied: 40.4% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +14.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 52.0% · No 48.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 24, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa II	33	26	3	4	81
2	Łomża	33	21	5	7	68
3	Warta Sieradz	33	20	8	5	68
4	Wigry Suwałki	33	19	5	9	62
5	Troszyn	33	17	6	10	57
6	Wisła Płock II	33	15	8	10	53
7	Widzew II	33	16	3	14	51
8	Jagiellonia II	33	14	6	13	48
9	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	32	13	7	12	46
10	Ząbkovia Ząbki	33	13	5	15	44
11	Swit	33	12	5	16	41
12	Mławianka Mława	32	10	7	15	37
13	Olimpia Elbląg	33	10	7	16	37
14	Broń Radom	33	9	9	15	36
15	Bełchatów	33	9	7	17	34
16	Wikielec	33	9	7	17	34
17	Wasilków	33	7	3	23	24
18	Znicz Biała Piska	33	4	3	26	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa II	33	79	29	+50	81
2	Łomża	33	75	30	+45	68
3	Troszyn	33	74	45	+29	57
4	Ząbkovia Ząbki	33	71	62	+9	44
5	Widzew II	33	68	63	+5	51
6	Warta Sieradz	33	63	34	+29	68
7	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	32	63	52	+11	46
8	Wigry Suwałki	33	61	41	+20	62
9	Wisła Płock II	33	52	50	+2	53
10	Mławianka Mława	32	51	56	-5	37
11	Swit	33	49	63	-14	41
12	Bełchatów	33	49	72	-23	34
13	Jagiellonia II	33	45	44	+1	48
14	Olimpia Elbląg	33	45	61	-16	37
15	Broń Radom	33	40	56	-16	36
16	Wasilków	33	39	78	-39	24
17	Wikielec	33	38	53	-15	34
18	Znicz Biała Piska	33	27	100	-73	15