Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Talleres Córdoba Talleres Córdoba ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.23
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Talleres Córdoba win · Platense 0–4 Talleres Córdoba
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "dc6bb21322964bd368be12dc479c8fc64519ea643211b4a4de2085ef922b52bb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.47,
"away_win_prob": 0.4861,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.524,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.476,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2966,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.06,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.91,
"home_win_prob": 0.2173,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.425,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.575
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Talleres C\u00f3rdoba and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"away_xg": 1.47,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"confidence": 48.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"edge": 0.186,
"edge_gap": 0.1888,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2997,
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 48.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 21.7
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.23
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.23,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.34,
"market_odds": 3.23,
"model_odds": 2.06,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 17.6,
"value_pct": 56.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 77.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 17,
"home_score_rate": 59.7,
"no_prob": 52.4,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 47.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.47,
"home_expected": 0.91,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Platense or Draw",
"prob": 51.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Platense or Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"prob": 78.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"pick_prob": 78.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 48.6,
"draw_pct": 29.7,
"home_pct": 21.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.38,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 42.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.38,
"under_prob": 57.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 57.0,
"implied_prob": 31.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba Win",
"model_prob": 48.6,
"odds": 3.23
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.97,
"draw": 34.57,
"home": 35.46
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-03 21:59:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-03 21:29:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Platense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.46,
"gap_pp": -13.71,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 21.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.57,
"gap_pp": -4.89,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.69
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.97,
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 48.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.5,
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 42.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 70.5,
"gap_pp": -13.0,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 57.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.73,
"early": 2.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.46,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.46,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.8,
"early": 2.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.57,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.23,
"early": 3.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.97,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.36,
"early": 1.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 70.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 70.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.6
}
},
"home_xg": 0.91,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 3.33,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Away Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"edge": 18.5,
"ev": 61.7,
"probability": 48.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0979,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0979,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5685,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"sort_key": 10238.11,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 42.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 57.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 52.4,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 47.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 820.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"alert_team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.64,
"hero_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob_pct": 30.0,
"market_team": "Platense",
"model_prob_pct": 48.6,
"model_team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5686,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Talleres C\u00f3rdoba at 48.6% vs market 30.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Talleres C\u00f3rdoba as the stronger side (48.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Talleres C\u00f3rdoba \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493042 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5685,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.56"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.56
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.4,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.64,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.64,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.47,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.91,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.47,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.47 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +9%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"steam_team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5686,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Talleres C\u00f3rdoba at 48.6% vs market 30.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Talleres C\u00f3rdoba as the stronger side (48.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Talleres C\u00f3rdoba \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493042 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5685,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.56"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.56
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Platense 0.91 xG vs Talleres C\u00f3rdoba 1.47 \u2192 Talleres C\u00f3rdoba 48.6%",
"Market: Platense ~30.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Talleres C\u00f3rdoba odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.73,
"fair_prob": 21.73,
"label": "Platense",
"market_prob": 35.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.91,
"fair_prob": 29.66,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 34.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.64,
"fair_prob": 48.61,
"label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob": 29.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 42.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 57.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 47.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 52.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 18.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.61,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob_pct": 29.97,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Talleres C\u00f3rdoba\u0027s win probability at 48.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.0%, a difference of 18.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.6,
"model_prob_pct": 48.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Platense 0.91 xG vs Talleres C\u00f3rdoba 1.47 \u2192 Talleres C\u00f3rdoba 48.6%",
"Market: Platense ~30.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Talleres C\u00f3rdoba odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.64,
"hero_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba odds lengthened \u2191 +14.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Talleres C\u00f3rdoba more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba (\u2191 +14.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.9 pp (at 48.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 18.9,
"max_prob_pct": 48.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.6,
"lead": "The model rates Talleres C\u00f3rdoba considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.73,
"edge_pp": -13.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.73,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Platense",
"market_prob_pct": 35.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.91,
"edge_pp": -4.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 34.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 18.64,
"edge_pp": 18.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.61,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob_pct": 29.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Platense (30.0%).",
"Talleres C\u00f3rdoba odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.3%, 7/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, Market \u2192 Platense, while Talleres C\u00f3rdoba odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.96,
"closing_odds": 3.23,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.96,
"entry_odds": 3.23,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba (14.3%, 7/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.23",
"3.01",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 89h 10m",
"pick_team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
3.23,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.23"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/13 sportsbooks on Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"away_team_id": 456,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/456.webp",
"away_team_name": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"away_team_slug": "talleres-cordoba",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493042,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Platense",
"home_team_id": 1064,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1064.webp",
"home_team_name": "Platense",
"home_team_slug": "platense",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-03 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2997,
"draw": 0.3457,
"home": 0.3546
},
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"p_final": 0.3399
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.417,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.089,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2997,
"draw": 0.3457,
"home": 0.3546
},
"model_prob": 0.2969,
"p_final": 0.3253
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3575,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.049,
"ev": -0.1658,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2997,
"draw": 0.3457,
"home": 0.3546
},
"model_prob": 0.2175,
"p_final": 0.3056
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.23,
"edge": 0.1761,
"ev": 0.5686,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.4856
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0603,
"ev": -0.1688,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.2969
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": -0.1488,
"ev": -0.4063,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.2175
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.38,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5686,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0979,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5686,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Talleres C\u00f3rdoba at 48.6% vs market 30.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Talleres C\u00f3rdoba as the stronger side (48.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Talleres C\u00f3rdoba \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493042 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Talleres C\u00f3rdoba, but the model still strongly favours Talleres C\u00f3rdoba.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5685,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.56"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.56
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.476,
"draw_prob": 0.2969,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4856,
"over_prob": 0.425,
"total_xg": 2.38,
"under_prob": 0.575,
"xg_diff": 0.56
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.524,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493042,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0979,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4856,
"draw": 0.2969,
"home": 0.2175
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"home": "Platense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052294,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Talleres C\u00f3rdoba",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0979,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4856,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5685,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493042,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-03T21:59:20.025504+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Platense & Talleres Córdoba!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Profesional Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
