The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Rosario Central at 50.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Rosario Central Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 20.9% | 22.1% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.4% | -0.0 pp | Aligned |
| Rosario Central | 50.8% | 49.5% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Rosario Central; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Banfield 20.9% · Draw 28.3% · Rosario Central 50.8%
- xG · Banfield 0.93 — Rosario Central 1.60
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 00:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Banfield 4.36 · Draw 3.40 · Rosario Central 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Banfield 22.1% · Draw 28.4% · Rosario Central 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 00:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Banfield 4.36 · Draw 3.40 · Rosario Central 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Banfield 22.1% · Draw 28.4% · Rosario Central 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 00:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
93/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Banfield 1–1 Rosario Central
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2834,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2086,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.6,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
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"home_predicted_xg": 0.93,
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"over_25_prob": 0.464,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Banfield or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Rosario Central",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Banfield"
},
"away_xg": 1.6,
"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "Winner : Rosario Central",
"edge": 0.0129,
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Rosario Central"
},
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{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
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"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Away",
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 29,
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"home_played": 26,
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"no_prob": 50.1,
"pick": "No",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Banfield or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 71.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Rosario Central",
"prob": 79.1
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Rosario Central",
"pick_prob": 79.1
},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 20.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Rosario Central"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.53,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
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"total_expected": 2.53,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"home": 22.13
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-06 00:14:02",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-06 00:05:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Banfield",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"movement_negligible": true,
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}
},
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{
"label": "0-2",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "0-0",
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}
]
},
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"text": "+6.7%"
},
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},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 46.4,
"sort_key": 10210.48,
"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"edge": 0.0141,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4711,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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},
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.0195,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0982,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.8,
"text": "-9.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.002,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.002,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 50.1,
"sort_key": 4049.72,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 49.9
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0202,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4949,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0202,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5078,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Rosario Central",
"sort_key": 1794.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 12.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"alert_team": "Banfield",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.31,
"hero_label": "Rosario Central",
"market_prob_pct": 49.5,
"market_team": "Rosario Central",
"model_prob_pct": 50.8,
"model_team": "Rosario Central",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0672,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0672,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0202,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4949,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5078,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 18.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.67"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.67
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 96,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.31,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.6,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 19.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.93,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.6,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.93 \u00b7 Away xG 1.60 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +19%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"steam_team": "Banfield",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0672,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0672,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0202,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4949,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5078,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 18.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.67"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.67
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Banfield 0.93 xG vs Rosario Central 1.60 \u2192 Rosario Central 50.8%",
"Market: Rosario Central ~49.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Banfield odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Rosario Central projects stronger on expected goals (+0.67 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.27,
"fair_prob": 20.86,
"label": "Banfield",
"market_prob": 22.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.04,
"fair_prob": 28.34,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.31,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "Rosario Central",
"market_prob": 49.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.93,
"fair_prob": 46.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob": 53.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.81,
"fair_prob": 49.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.81,
"fair_prob": 50.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.8,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Rosario Central",
"market_prob_pct": 49.49,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Banfield"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Rosario Central",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.3,
"model_prob_pct": 50.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Rosario Central \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Banfield 0.93 xG vs Rosario Central 1.60 \u2192 Rosario Central 50.8%",
"Market: Rosario Central ~49.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Banfield odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Rosario Central projects stronger on expected goals (+0.67 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.31,
"hero_label": "Rosario Central",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Banfield odds lengthened \u2191 +12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Banfield has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Banfield \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Banfield has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Banfield \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Banfield has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.5 pp (at 50.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.5,
"max_prob_pct": 50.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Rosario Central",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.27,
"edge_pp": -1.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.86,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Banfield",
"market_prob_pct": 22.13,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.04,
"edge_pp": -0.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.31,
"edge_pp": 1.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.8,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rosario Central",
"market_prob_pct": 49.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Banfield \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Rosario Central (49.5%).",
"Banfield odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.5%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Rosario Central \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.28,
"closing_odds": 1.95,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.28,
"entry_odds": 1.95,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Banfield (12.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.25",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.50 \u2192 3.63 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 137h 3m",
"pick_team": "Banfield",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.63"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.36,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Banfield",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Banfield",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
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"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Banfield",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Banfield",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rosario-central",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Rosario Central",
"away_team_id": 437,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/437.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rosario Central",
"away_team_public_id": "3sp6pFE7i1nl07",
"away_team_slug": "rosario-central",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493154,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Banfield",
"home_team_id": 449,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/449.webp",
"home_team_name": "Banfield",
"home_team_public_id": "3zkIVFDn5wmQu8",
"home_team_slug": "banfield",
"ht.home_team_slug": "banfield",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_public_id": "3OCeIb3vl8JGVi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-06 00:15:00",
"public_id": "3Bn6E2UbTc7VNq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Estadio Florencio Sola"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5884,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4949,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4949,
"draw": 0.2838,
"home": 0.2213
},
"model_prob": 0.5078,
"p_final": 0.5025
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2998,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.2838,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4949,
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"home": 0.2213
},
"model_prob": 0.2834,
"p_final": 0.2837
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 4.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0457,
"implied_prob": 0.2213,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4949,
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},
"model_prob": 0.2088,
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.5078
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0365,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2834
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.36,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.2294,
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}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5533,
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"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0281,
"edge_yes": 0.0281,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0982,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1014,
"ev_yes": -0.002,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0467,
"implied_no": 0.5291,
"implied_yes": 0.4709,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5533,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.5289,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"p_final": 0.5135
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.503,
"best_odd": 1.965,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0467,
"implied_prob": 0.4711,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"p_final": 0.4851
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5135,
"p_final_yes": 0.4851,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4134,
"alpha_under": 0.5684,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.63,
"edge_over": 0.0393,
"edge_under": -0.0393,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0672,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0199,
"ev_under": -0.1049,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.097,
"implied_over": 0.4247,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4223,
"implied_under": 0.5753,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5777,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4134,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.4223,
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"p_final": 0.4395
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5684,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.097,
"implied_prob": 0.5777,
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"p_final": 0.554
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
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"p_final_over": 0.4395,
"p_final_under": 0.554,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.53,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.0672,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0672,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0672,
"confidence": 6.0,
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
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"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
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},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rosario Central)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0672,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0672,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rosario Central at 50.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rosario Central as the value side (50.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rosario Central",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
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],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
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],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
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"source": "db",
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"version": "v2.5",
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"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
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}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
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"type": "neutral",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rosario Central"
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"yes": {
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
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"consensus_odds": 2.23,
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"over": {
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"edge": 0.0172,
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"under": {
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"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.0672,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493154,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
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"code": "thin_edge",
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"max_valid_ev": 0.0672,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.2088
},
"reason_codes": [
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"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
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"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Banfield"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0202,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4949,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5078,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-1.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493154,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-06T01:06:04.008605+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
