The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Deportivo Riestra at 47.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Deportivo Riestra Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 47.9% | 49.6% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 31.0% | 29.4% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Central Córdoba | 21.1% | 20.9% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo Riestra; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Riestra 47.9% · Draw 31.1% · Central Córdoba 21.1%
- xG · Deportivo Riestra 1.37 — Central Córdoba 0.83
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Riestra 1.90 · Draw 3.20 · Central Córdoba 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Riestra 49.6% · Draw 29.4% · Central Córdoba 20.9%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Riestra 1.90 · Draw 3.20 · Central Córdoba 4.50
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Riestra 49.6% · Draw 29.4% · Central Córdoba 20.9%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
91/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Central Córdoba
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "11d60ef2de42f96d3046ee0c902141a54e5af98de1a3ac04473e32b20d009696",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.83,
"away_win_prob": 0.2108,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.563,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.437,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3102,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.74,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.22,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.479,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.377,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.623
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Deportivo Riestra or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Riestra"
},
"away_xg": 0.83,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0176,
"edge_gap": 0.1679,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.496,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 21.1,
"draw": 31.1,
"home": 47.8
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Deportivo Riestra Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.02,
"market_odds": 1.9,
"model_odds": 2.09,
"overround": 6.1,
"prob_edge": -4.8,
"value_pct": -9.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 14,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 56.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 17,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 56.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 43.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.83,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Riestra or Draw",
"prob": 78.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Riestra or Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"prob": 52.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Riestra or Draw",
"pick_prob": 78.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 21.1,
"draw_pct": 31.0,
"home_pct": 47.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Riestra"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.2,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 37.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.2,
"under_prob": 62.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": -9.1,
"implied_prob": 52.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Deportivo Riestra Win",
"model_prob": 47.8,
"odds": 1.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.94,
"draw": 29.45,
"home": 49.6
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:40:33",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:24:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Riestra",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.6,
"gap_pp": -1.76,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 47.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.45,
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.06
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.94,
"gap_pp": 0.15,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 21.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.9,
"early": 1.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.45,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.5,
"early": 4.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.94,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.8,
"ev": -0.24,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 5.0,
"market_prob": 0.2,
"market_prob_pct": 20.0,
"model_prob": 0.152,
"model_prob_pct": 15.2,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4052,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0095,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.3534,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.377,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4052,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.363
},
"p_final": 0.363,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0104,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0471,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5571,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.6466,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.6334
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0895,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.9,
"text": "+8.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0842,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.4,
"text": "-8.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0895,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 37.7,
"sort_key": 10080.55,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 62.3,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3978,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.014,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4018,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.437,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.547,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1055,
"implied_prob": 0.5982,
"model_prob": 0.563,
"p_final": 0.5789
},
"p_final": 0.4158,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0051,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0436,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3978,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.4018,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.4158
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0992,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.9,
"text": "-9.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0401,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.0,
"text": "+4.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0401,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 56.3,
"sort_key": 10036.09,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 43.7
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.077,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.7,
"text": "-7.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0425,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"sort_key": 1789.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 825.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 15.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"alert_team": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.7,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"market_team": "Deportivo Riestra",
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"model_team": "Deportivo Riestra",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0895,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Riestra at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Riestra as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Riestra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.7,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.7,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.83,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 0.83 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"steam_team": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0895,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Riestra at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Riestra as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Riestra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Riestra 1.37 xG vs Central C\u00f3rdoba 0.83 \u2192 Deportivo Riestra 47.9%",
"Market: Deportivo Riestra ~49.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Central C\u00f3rdoba odds \u2191 +9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Deportivo Riestra projects stronger on expected goals (+0.54 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob": 47.9,
"label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"market_prob": 49.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.57,
"fair_prob": 31.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.14,
"fair_prob": 21.08,
"label": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob": 20.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.59,
"fair_prob": 37.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.59,
"fair_prob": 62.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.42,
"fair_prob": 43.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob": 56.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.9,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Riestra",
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Central C\u00f3rdoba"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 47.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo Riestra \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Riestra 1.37 xG vs Central C\u00f3rdoba 0.83 \u2192 Deportivo Riestra 47.9%",
"Market: Deportivo Riestra ~49.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Central C\u00f3rdoba odds \u2191 +9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Deportivo Riestra projects stronger on expected goals (+0.54 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -1.7,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Central C\u00f3rdoba odds lengthened \u2191 +9.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Central C\u00f3rdoba has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Central C\u00f3rdoba \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Central C\u00f3rdoba has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Central C\u00f3rdoba \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Central C\u00f3rdoba has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Central C\u00f3rdoba."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.9 pp (at 47.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 16.9,
"max_prob_pct": 47.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"largest_gap_pp": -1.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.7,
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.9,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Riestra",
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.57,
"edge_pp": 1.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.45,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.14,
"edge_pp": 0.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.08,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"market_prob_pct": 20.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Central C\u00f3rdoba \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Riestra (49.6%).",
"Central C\u00f3rdoba odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.7%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Deportivo Riestra \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Central C\u00f3rdoba (9.7%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.29",
"4.81",
"4.33"
],
"display": "5.20 \u2192 3.96 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 3m",
"pick_team": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.96"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
5.26,
5.29,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.6 37.3,0.0 56.0,10.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "central-cordoba-de-santiago",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"away_team_id": 1065,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1065.webp",
"away_team_name": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"away_team_public_id": "07zLi9SqM7WZuz",
"away_team_slug": "central-cordoba-de-santiago",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493157,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Riestra",
"home_team_id": 476,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/476.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Riestra",
"home_team_public_id": "1vAFzS0DP6oFST",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-riestra",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-riestra",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_public_id": "3OCeIb3vl8JGVi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 19:45:00",
"public_id": "1acBWPm9GFPTg6",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Flores",
"venue_name": "Estadio Guillermo Laza"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1995,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.0562,
"implied_prob": 0.2094,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2094,
"draw": 0.2945,
"home": 0.496
},
"model_prob": 0.211,
"p_final": 0.2097
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2928,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.2945,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2094,
"draw": 0.2945,
"home": 0.496
},
"model_prob": 0.3106,
"p_final": 0.2992
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5842,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2094,
"draw": 0.2945,
"home": 0.496
},
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"p_final": 0.4858
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.2222,
"model_prob": 0.211
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3106
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.0478,
"ev": -0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.4785
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.547,
"alpha_yes": 0.3978,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0342,
"edge_yes": 0.0342,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0992,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1055,
"ev_yes": 0.0401,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0436,
"implied_no": 0.5972,
"implied_yes": 0.4028,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.547,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1055,
"implied_prob": 0.5982,
"model_prob": 0.563,
"p_final": 0.5789
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3978,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.4018,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.4158
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5789,
"p_final_yes": 0.4158,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4052,
"alpha_under": 0.5571,
"best_over_odd": 2.89,
"best_under_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.625,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.435,
"edge_over": 0.0259,
"edge_under": -0.0259,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0895,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0471,
"ev_under": -0.0842,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.091,
"implied_over": 0.3511,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3534,
"implied_under": 0.6489,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6466,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4052,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.363
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5571,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.6466,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.6334
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.363,
"p_final_under": 0.6334,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0895,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0895,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0895,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Riestra at 47.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Riestra as the value side (47.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Riestra",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Riestra).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.54"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.54
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.437,
"draw_prob": 0.3106,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4785,
"over_prob": 0.377,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"under_prob": 0.623,
"xg_diff": 0.54
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0895,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3511,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.377,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Riestra"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3978,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.014,
"market_prob": 0.4018,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.437,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.547,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1055,
"implied_prob": 0.5982,
"model_prob": 0.563,
"p_final": 0.5789
},
"p_final": 0.4158,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0436,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3978,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.4018,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.4158
}
},
"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": 0.0401,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4052,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0095,
"market_prob": 0.3534,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.377,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4052,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.363
},
"p_final": 0.363,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0471,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5571,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.6466,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.6334
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.3511,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493157,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0895,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.211,
"draw": 0.3106,
"home": 0.4785
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Central C\u00f3rdoba",
"home": "Deportivo Riestra"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.496,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4785,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5263157894736842,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0909,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493157,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:44:08.070389+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Riestra & Central Córdoba!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga Profesional Argentina — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
