Arsenal vs Burnley Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
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      "away_predicted_xg": 0.53,
      "away_win_prob": 0.0423,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1329,
      "fair_odds_away": 23.67,
      "fair_odds_draw": 7.52,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.21,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.72,
      "home_win_prob": 0.8248,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Arsenal",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "0%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "50%",
      "winner_name": "Arsenal"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.53,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Arsenal",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0684,
        "edge_gap": 0.6923,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.8935,
        "model_prob": 0.8251,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 4.2,
          "draw": 13.3,
          "home": 82.5
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.08
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.08,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Arsenal Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.12,
        "market_odds": 1.08,
        "model_odds": 1.21,
        "overround": 3.6,
        "prob_edge": -9.9,
        "value_pct": -10.7,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 4,
        "away_failed_to_score": 13,
        "away_played": 36,
        "away_score_rate": 41.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 18,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 36,
        "home_score_rate": 93.4,
        "no_prob": 60.8,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 60.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 39.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.53,
        "home_expected": 2.72,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 14.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 13.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 4,
            "label": "4-0",
            "prob": 8.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Arsenal or Draw",
            "prob": 95.8
          },
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            "key": "12",
            "label": "Arsenal or Burnley",
            "prob": 86.7
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            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Burnley",
            "prob": 17.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Arsenal or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 95.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 4.2,
        "draw_pct": 13.3,
        "home_pct": 82.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Arsenal"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.25,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.9,
        "over_prob": 63.0,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 63.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.25,
        "under_prob": 37.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 79.8,
        "implied_prob": 7.4,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 13.3,
        "odds": 13.52
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Burnley",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Arsenal",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 89.35,
          "gap_pp": -6.84,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 82.51
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 7.14,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
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        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 3.51,
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          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 4.22
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 72.36,
          "gap_pp": -9.36,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 63.0
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.64,
          "gap_pp": 9.36,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 37.0
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.08,
          "early": 1.08,
          "implied_closing_pct": 89.35,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 89.35,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 13.52,
          "early": 13.52,
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          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
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        {
          "closing": 1.31,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 72.36,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 3.43,
          "early": 3.43,
          "implied_closing_pct": 27.64,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 27.64,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
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      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 9.4,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 14.3
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.72,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1621,
        "ev_under": 0.2728,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 63.0,
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        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 37.0,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.8935,
        "max_ev": 0.1157,
        "model_prob": 0.8251,
        "side_label": "Arsenal",
        "sort_key": 5292.56,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
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        "sort_key": 822.9,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
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      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 44,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/44.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Burnley",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1379329,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 42,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/42.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Arsenal",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_id": 39,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/39.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1979,
            "best_odd": 27.46,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0014,
            "ev": 0.0032,
            "implied_prob": 0.0351,
            "model_prob": 0.0422,
            "p_final": 0.0365
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          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 13.52,
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.1157,
            "implied_prob": 0.0714,
            "model_prob": 0.1328,
            "p_final": 0.0825
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5384,
            "best_odd": 1.08,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0368,
            "ev": -0.0748,
            "implied_prob": 0.8935,
            "model_prob": 0.8251,
            "p_final": 0.8566
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.5,
          "edge_no": -0.0124,
          "edge_yes": 0.0124,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0454,
          "ev_yes": -0.02,
          "implied_no": 0.6204,
          "implied_yes": 0.3796,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.33,
          "best_under_odd": 3.44,
          "edge_over": -0.0874,
          "edge_under": 0.0874,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1621,
          "ev_under": 0.2728,
          "implied_over": 0.7174,
          "implied_under": 0.2826,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.25,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
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        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2728,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "draw_prob": 0.1328,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.8251,
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          "total_xg": 3.25,
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          "xg_diff": 2.19
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1157,
          "implied_prob": 0.0714,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.1328,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
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      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.8935,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.8251,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Arsenal"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0124,
          "ev": -0.02,
          "implied_prob": 0.3796,
          "model_prob": 0.392,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0874,
          "ev": 0.2728,
          "implied_prob": 0.2826,
          "model_prob": 0.37,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
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      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2728,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.0422,
        "draw": 0.1328,
        "home": 0.8251
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Burnley",
        "home": "Arsenal"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.100936,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2728,
        "implied_prob": 0.2826,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.37,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1379329,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T13:59:12.659620+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}