Gaborone United vs Police XI Statistics & Analysis

Gaborone United

Oct 14, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.54

0 1.06

xG Accuracy: 64%

Police XI

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Gaborone United Gaborone United ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 14, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-15525718

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Gaborone United win · Gaborone United 1–0 Police XI

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Gaborone United vs Police XI
Kickoff: 2026-10-14 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.6%
xG (showing): Gaborone United 1.54 — Police XI 1.06 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tonota	5	3	2	0	11
2	Gaborone United	3	3	0	0	9
3	Police XI	5	2	2	1	8
4	Sua Flamingoes	5	2	2	1	8
5	TAFIC	4	2	1	1	7
6	Centre Chiefs	5	2	1	2	7
7	Extension Gunners	4	2	1	1	7
8	Galaxy	2	2	0	0	6
9	Orapa United	5	1	3	1	6
10	Nico United	5	2	0	3	6
11	Township Rollers	4	1	2	1	5
12	Enesia	5	1	2	2	5
13	BDF XI	4	1	1	2	4
14	Prisons XI	5	1	0	4	3
15	Morupule Wanderers	4	0	2	2	2
16	Matebele	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tonota	5	7	3	+4	11
2	Enesia	5	7	9	-2	5
3	Gaborone United	3	6	2	+4	9
4	Galaxy	2	6	3	+3	6
5	Township Rollers	4	6	4	+2	5
6	Orapa United	5	6	5	+1	6
7	Nico United	5	6	6	0	6
8	TAFIC	4	5	3	+2	7
9	Centre Chiefs	5	5	5	0	7
10	BDF XI	4	5	8	-3	4
11	Prisons XI	5	4	8	-4	3
12	Police XI	5	3	1	+2	8
13	Sua Flamingoes	5	3	2	+1	8
14	Matebele	5	3	8	-5	1
15	Extension Gunners	4	2	3	-1	7
16	Morupule Wanderers	4	2	6	-4	2