AC Douane vs Gendrim Statistics & Analysis

AC Douane

Oct 11, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.43

2 1.17

xG Accuracy: 71%

Gendrim

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 AC Douane Gendrim ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 10, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14551031

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Gendrim win · AC Douane 1–2 Gendrim

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: AC Douane vs Gendrim
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): AC Douane 1.43 — Gendrim 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.1% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +11.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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