Nigeria W vs Comoros W Statistics & Analysis

Nigeria W

Oct 13, 2026 - 15:00

5 1.42

0 1.18

xG Accuracy: 27%

Comoros W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nigeria W Nigeria W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 10, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14520028

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Nigeria W win · Nigeria W 5–0 Comoros W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Olympics Women - Qualification CAF
Fixture: Nigeria W vs Comoros W
Kickoff: 2026-10-13 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Nigeria W 1.42 — Comoros W 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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