Burgan vs Al Jazira Statistics & Analysis

Burgan

Oct 08, 2026 - 14:50

0 1.27

1 1.33

xG Accuracy: 64%

Al Jazira

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Al Jazira Al Jazira ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 08, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13887066

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al Jazira win · Burgan 0–1 Al Jazira

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Division 1
Fixture: Burgan vs Al Jazira
Kickoff: 2026-10-08 14:50:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Burgan 1.27 — Al Jazira 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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