Shamiya vs Ittihad Al-Shorta Statistics & Analysis

Shamiya

Oct 08, 2026 - 14:50

0 1.16

1 1.44

xG Accuracy: 64%

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Ittihad Al-Shorta

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ittihad Al-Shorta Ittihad Al-Shorta ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 08, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13886971

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ittihad Al-Shorta win · Shamiya 0–1 Ittihad Al-Shorta

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Division 1
Fixture: Shamiya vs Ittihad Al-Shorta
Kickoff: 2026-10-08 14:50:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Shamiya 1.16 — Ittihad Al-Shorta 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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