Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Cup / Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia

Prediction Audit: Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nesebar Nesebar
Oct 18, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.13
2 1.47
xG Accuracy: 63%
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 18, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result CSKA Sofia win · 0–2

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Oct 12, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-15132827

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CSKA Sofia win · Nesebar 0–2 CSKA Sofia
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-18 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Nesebar 1.13 — CSKA Sofia 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 14, 2026 (UTC)

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