Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / SOL DE America vs Sportivo Carapeguá

SOL DE America vs Sportivo Carapeguá Statistics & Analysis

SOL DE America SOL DE America
Oct 09, 2026 - 22:30
2 1.45
4 1.15
xG Accuracy: 39%
Sportivo Carapeguá Sportivo Carapeguá
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SOL DE America Sportivo Carapeguá ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13662014

Closing Odds 3.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sportivo Carapeguá win · SOL DE America 2–4 Sportivo Carapeguá
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) by about 2.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SOL DE America (1X2) 42.4 44.2 -1.9
Draw (1X2) 29.2 30.0 -0.7
Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) 28.4 25.8 +2.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.8%. The difference — about 2.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
SOL DE America (1X2) 2.1 2.1 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Sportivo Carapeguá (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: SOL DE America vs Sportivo Carapeguá
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): SOL DE America 1.45 — Sportivo Carapeguá 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for SOL DE America & Sportivo Carapeguá!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 General Caballero 28 17 5 6 56
2 Deportivo Santani 28 17 3 8 54
3 12 de Junio VH 28 14 9 5 51
4 Independiente F.b.c. 28 11 10 7 43
5 Benjamín Aceval 28 12 6 10 42
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 28 12 6 10 42
7 SOL DE America 28 9 14 5 41
8 Paraguari AC 28 12 5 11 41
9 Resistencia 28 9 9 10 36
10 Atlético Tembetary 28 10 6 12 36
11 Fernando De La Mora 28 9 7 12 34
12 Deportivo Capiata 28 7 11 10 32
13 3 de Noviembre 28 7 8 13 29
14 Guairena FC 28 7 7 14 28
15 Tacuary 28 4 12 12 24
16 Encarnación 28 6 4 18 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 28 56 34 +22 56
2 Deportivo Santani 28 47 27 +20 54
3 Independiente F.b.c. 28 43 35 +8 43
4 Benjamín Aceval 28 43 38 +5 42
5 Paraguari AC 28 40 37 +3 41
6 Atlético Tembetary 28 39 45 -6 36
7 12 de Junio VH 28 37 28 +9 51
8 Sportivo Carapeguá 28 36 41 -5 42
9 3 de Noviembre 28 36 42 -6 29
10 SOL DE America 28 35 29 +6 41
11 Deportivo Capiata 28 34 38 -4 32
12 Resistencia 28 32 33 -1 36
13 Fernando De La Mora 28 32 40 -8 34
14 Tacuary 28 32 47 -15 24
15 Encarnación 28 25 40 -15 22
16 Guairena FC 28 23 36 -13 28
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions