Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paraense B2 / Pedreira vs Tesla

Pedreira vs Tesla Statistics & Analysis

Pedreira Pedreira
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 80%
Tesla Tesla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pedreira Pedreira ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12175231

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pedreira win · Pedreira 2–1 Tesla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Paraense B2
  • Fixture: Pedreira vs Tesla
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Pedreira 1.4 — Tesla 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Paraense B2 Paraense B2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gavião 4 3 1 0 10
2 Sport Belem 4 3 0 1 9
3 Pedreira 4 3 0 1 9
4 Belenense 4 2 1 1 7
5 Vénus 4 2 1 1 7
6 Pinheirense 4 1 3 0 6
7 Tesla 4 1 2 1 5
8 Parauapebas 4 1 2 1 5
9 Paraense SC 4 1 1 2 4
10 Altamira 4 0 1 3 1
11 ESMAC 4 0 1 3 1
12 CA Vila Rica 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Belenense 4 14 9 +5 7
2 Sport Belem 4 11 4 +7 9
3 Pedreira 4 10 3 +7 9
4 Vénus 4 8 5 +3 7
5 Gavião 4 6 2 +4 10
6 Tesla 4 6 5 +1 5
7 Pinheirense 4 4 3 +1 6
8 Parauapebas 4 4 4 0 5
9 ESMAC 4 4 14 -10 1
10 Paraense SC 4 2 4 -2 4
11 CA Vila Rica 4 2 14 -12 1
12 Altamira 4 1 5 -4 1