Juventud vs Racing Montevideo Statistics & Analysis

Juventud

Oct 11, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.30

0 1.30

xG Accuracy: 58%

Racing Montevideo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Juventud Juventud ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13247610

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Juventud win · Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División - Apertura - Apertura
Fixture: Juventud vs Racing Montevideo
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Juventud 1.3 — Racing Montevideo 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera División - Apertura — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Penarol	32	19	7	6	63
2	Deportivo Maldonado	32	17	8	7	59
3	Atletico Torque	32	17	6	9	57
4	Club Nacional	32	17	4	11	55
5	Racing Montevideo	32	14	11	7	53
6	Liverpool Montevideo	32	13	11	8	50
7	Wanderers	32	14	8	10	50
8	Albion FC	32	11	7	14	40
9	Juventud	32	10	10	12	40
10	Central Espanol	32	10	8	14	38
11	Cerro	32	10	6	16	36
12	Defensor Sporting	32	8	11	13	35
13	Boston River	32	9	7	16	34
14	Cerro Largo	32	8	9	15	33
15	Danubio	32	5	14	13	29
16	Progreso	32	8	5	19	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Atletico Torque	32	53	37	+16	57
2	Penarol	32	51	26	+25	63
3	Deportivo Maldonado	32	50	28	+22	59
4	Club Nacional	32	48	38	+10	55
5	Liverpool Montevideo	32	43	31	+12	50
6	Albion FC	32	42	42	0	40
7	Wanderers	32	41	39	+2	50
8	Juventud	32	37	39	-2	40
9	Racing Montevideo	32	36	27	+9	53
10	Central Espanol	32	32	43	-11	38
11	Boston River	32	32	43	-11	34
12	Defensor Sporting	32	30	39	-9	35
13	Cerro Largo	32	29	37	-8	33
14	Progreso	32	28	47	-19	29
15	Danubio	32	26	41	-15	29
16	Cerro	32	26	47	-21	36