Statistics / Football / Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 9 / Nea Ionia vs Acharnaikos

Nea Ionia vs Acharnaikos Statistics & Analysis

Nea Ionia Nea Ionia
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 34%
Acharnaikos Acharnaikos
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nea Ionia Nea Ionia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11675084

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nea Ionia win · Nea Ionia 4–0 Acharnaikos
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Gamma Ethniki - Group 9
  • Fixture: Nea Ionia vs Acharnaikos
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Nea Ionia 1.32 — Acharnaikos 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 9 Gamma Ethniki - Group 9 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AE Mykonos 2 2 0 0 6
2 Ilisiakos 2 2 0 0 6
3 Nea Ionia 2 1 0 1 3
4 Thyella Diastavroseos 1 1 0 0 3
5 Pannaxiakos 2 1 0 1 3
6 Asteras Magoula 2 1 0 1 3
7 Saronikos Anavyssou 2 1 0 1 3
8 Ilioupoli 1 0 1 0 1
9 Asteras Varis 2 0 1 1 1
10 Ethnikos Asteras 2 0 0 2 0
11 Acharnaikos 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nea Ionia 2 5 2 +3 3
2 AE Mykonos 2 4 0 +4 6
3 Ilisiakos 2 4 0 +4 6
4 Pannaxiakos 2 3 3 0 3
5 Thyella Diastavroseos 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Ethnikos Asteras 2 2 4 -2 0
7 Asteras Magoula 2 1 1 0 3
8 Ilioupoli 1 1 1 0 1
9 Saronikos Anavyssou 2 1 2 -1 3
10 Asteras Varis 2 1 3 -2 1
11 Acharnaikos 2 0 7 -7 0
Gamma Ethniki - Group 9 Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 9 Predictions