Statistics / Football / Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 / Ethnikos Piraeus vs Amfiali

Ethnikos Piraeus vs Amfiali Statistics & Analysis

Ethnikos Piraeus Ethnikos Piraeus
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
Amfiali
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ethnikos Piraeus Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11674804

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ethnikos Piraeus 1–1 Amfiali
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Gamma Ethniki - Group 8
  • Fixture: Ethnikos Piraeus vs Amfiali
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ethnikos Piraeus 1.32 — Amfiali 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Egaleo 2 2 0 0 6
2 Apollon Smirnis 2 2 0 0 6
3 Vyrona 2 2 0 0 6
4 Amfiali 2 1 1 0 4
5 Ethnikos Piraeus 2 1 1 0 4
6 Afantou 2 1 1 0 4
7 Ionikos 2 0 1 1 1
8 PAO Rouf 2 0 1 1 1
9 Diagoras 2 0 1 1 1
10 Ialysos 2 0 0 2 0
11 Proodeftiki 2 0 0 2 0
12 Apollon Kalyt. 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Egaleo 2 5 1 +4 6
2 Apollon Smirnis 2 3 0 +3 6
3 Vyrona 2 3 0 +3 6
4 Amfiali 2 2 1 +1 4
5 Ethnikos Piraeus 2 2 1 +1 4
6 Afantou 2 1 0 +1 4
7 Apollon Kalyt. 2 1 5 -4 0
8 Ionikos 2 0 1 -1 1
9 PAO Rouf 2 0 1 -1 1
10 Diagoras 2 0 2 -2 1
11 Ialysos 2 0 2 -2 0
12 Proodeftiki 2 0 3 -3 0
Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 Predictions