Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks Statistics & Analysis

Mombasa Elite

Oct 01, 2026 - 11:00

2 0.96

1 1.04

xG Accuracy: 74%

Kariobangi Sharks

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Kariobangi Sharks Mombasa Elite ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11670896

Closing Odds 2.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Mombasa Elite win · Mombasa Elite 2–1 Kariobangi Sharks

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Mombasa Elite (1X2)	30.7	33.5	-2.8
Draw (1X2)	34.3	32.0	+2.4
Kariobangi Sharks (1X2)	34.9	34.5	+0.5
Over 2.5 goals	32.3	34.3	-2.0
Under 2.5 goals	67.7	65.7	+2.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.3% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.0%. The difference — about 2.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Mombasa Elite (1X2)	2.65	2.65
Draw (1X2)	2.78	2.78
Kariobangi Sharks (1X2)	2.58	2.58
Over 2.5 goals	2.66	2.66
Under 2.5 goals	1.39	1.39

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: FKF Premier League
Fixture: Mombasa Elite vs Kariobangi Sharks
Kickoff: 2026-10-01 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.7% · Draw 34.3% · Away 34.9%
xG (showing): Mombasa Elite 0.96 — Kariobangi Sharks 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.0)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 67.7% · Implied: 63.6% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 41.7% · No 58.3%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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FKF Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	34	20	9	5	69
2	AFC Leopards	34	19	7	8	64
3	Police	34	13	16	5	55
4	Nairobi United	34	14	11	9	53
5	Shabana	34	14	10	10	52
6	Homeboyz	34	12	13	9	49
7	KCB	34	13	9	12	48
8	Murang'a SEAL	34	13	8	13	47
9	Tusker	34	13	6	15	45
10	APS Bomet	34	11	11	12	44
11	Mara Sugar	34	10	14	10	44
12	Bandari	34	9	17	8	44
13	Ulinzi Stars	34	11	8	15	41
14	Mathare United	34	11	8	15	41
15	Posta Rangers FC	34	9	13	12	40
16	Kariobangi Sharks	34	8	14	12	38
17	Bidco United	34	5	12	17	27
18	Sofapaka	34	3	10	21	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GOR Mahia	34	50	22	+28	69
2	Homeboyz	34	47	37	+10	49
3	AFC Leopards	34	44	28	+16	64
4	Nairobi United	34	44	34	+10	53
5	Murang'a SEAL	34	42	41	+1	47
6	APS Bomet	34	37	35	+2	44
7	KCB	34	36	37	-1	48
8	Shabana	34	35	34	+1	52
9	Ulinzi Stars	34	34	37	-3	41
10	Police	34	31	21	+10	55
11	Mathare United	34	31	35	-4	41
12	Posta Rangers FC	34	31	40	-9	40
13	Mara Sugar	34	30	30	0	44
14	Kariobangi Sharks	34	30	33	-3	38
15	Tusker	34	27	32	-5	45
16	Bandari	34	26	26	0	44
17	Bidco United	34	19	40	-21	27
18	Sofapaka	34	19	51	-32	19