Statistics / Football / World. CAF U23 Cup of Nations / Eswatini U23 vs Malawi U23

Eswatini U23 vs Malawi U23 Statistics & Analysis

Eswatini U23 Eswatini U23
Oct 06, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
Malawi U23
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Eswatini U23 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11911091

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Eswatini U23 1–1 Malawi U23
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: CAF U23 Cup of Nations
  • Fixture: Eswatini U23 vs Malawi U23
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Eswatini U23 1.32 — Malawi U23 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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