Tunisia U23 vs Benin U23 Statistics & Analysis

Tunisia U23

Sep 29, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 58%

Benin U23

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tunisia U23 Tunisia U23 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11663965

Closing Odds 1.3

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tunisia U23 win · Tunisia U23 2–0 Benin U23

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.68 percentage points on Tunisia U23 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Benin U23 (1X2) by about 24.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tunisia U23 (1X2)	36.1	70.5	-34.4
Draw (1X2)	29.7	19.8	+9.9
Benin U23 (1X2)	34.2	9.8	+24.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.6	+0.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	52.4	-0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Benin U23 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.8%. The difference — about 24.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Tunisia U23 (1X2)	1.3	1.3	+0.7
Draw (1X2)	4.54	4.64	-0.2
Benin U23 (1X2)	8.9	9.39	-0.4
Over 2.5 goals	1.97	1.99	+0.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.79	1.81	-0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tunisia U23; market prices Tunisia U23 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Tunisia U23 1.32 xG vs Benin U23 1.28 → Tunisia U23 36.1%
Market: Tunisia U23 ~70.5% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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