Statistics / Football / World. Asian Games Women / Korea DPR vs China W

Korea DPR vs China W Statistics & Analysis

Korea DPR Korea DPR
Sep 29, 2026 - 06:00
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
China W China W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Korea DPR Korea DPR ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11662059

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Korea DPR win · Korea DPR 2–0 China W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), China W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on China W (1X2) by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Korea DPR (1X2) 36.1 63.5 -27.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 21.8 +7.8
China W (1X2) 34.2 14.7 +19.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.1 -4.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.9 +4.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on China W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.7%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Korea DPR (1X2) 1.4 1.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.07 4.07 0.0
China W (1X2) 6.05 6.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.94 1.94 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Asian Games Women
  • Fixture: Korea DPR vs China W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-29 06:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Korea DPR 1.32 — China W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Korea DPR & China W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Asian Games Women Asian Games Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Japan W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 2 0 1 6
3 Vietnam W 3 0 1 2 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Japan W 3 20 0 +20 9
2 Chinese Taipei W 3 3 5 -2 6
3 Vietnam W 3 1 10 -9 1
4 Thailand W 3 0 9 -9 1
Asian Games Women World. Asian Games Women Predictions