USM Annaba vs Paradou AC Statistics & Analysis

USM Annaba

Oct 02, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.38

1 1.22

xG Accuracy: 79%

Paradou AC

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 USM Annaba USM Annaba ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11677262

Closing Odds 2.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result USM Annaba win · USM Annaba 2–1 Paradou AC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.89 percentage points on Paradou AC (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 19.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
USM Annaba (1X2)	39.0	35.7	+3.3
Draw (1X2)	29.5	38.1	-8.6
Paradou AC (1X2)	31.5	26.1	+5.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	28.8	+19.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	71.2	-19.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 28.8%. The difference — about 19.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
USM Annaba (1X2)	2.44	2.49	-0.7
Draw (1X2)	2.32	2.33	-0.2
Paradou AC (1X2)	3.52	3.4	+0.9
Over 2.5 goals	3.17	3.16	+0.1
Under 2.5 goals	1.28	1.28	-0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ligue 2
Fixture: USM Annaba vs Paradou AC
Kickoff: 2026-10-02 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): USM Annaba 1.38 — Paradou AC 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 32.2% · Probability edge: +16.0 pts · Est. EV: +52.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for USM Annaba & Paradou AC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics