Statistics / Football / Jamaica. Premier League / Dunbeholden vs Mount Pleasant Academy

Dunbeholden vs Mount Pleasant Academy Statistics & Analysis

Dunbeholden Dunbeholden
Sep 27, 2026 - 20:30
0 1.09
2 1.51
xG Accuracy: 65%
Mount Pleasant Academy Mount Pleasant Academy
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mount Pleasant Academy Mount Pleasant Academy ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 03:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10987665

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Mount Pleasant Academy win · Dunbeholden 0–2 Mount Pleasant Academy
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dunbeholden (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dunbeholden (1X2) by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dunbeholden (1X2) 25.8 18.8 +7.0
Draw (1X2) 28.9 25.1 +3.8
Mount Pleasant Academy (1X2) 45.3 56.1 -10.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.5 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.5 +0.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.8% on Dunbeholden (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.8%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dunbeholden (1X2) 4.81 4.81 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Mount Pleasant Academy (1X2) 1.61 1.61 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Dunbeholden vs Mount Pleasant Academy
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Away 45.3%
  • xG (showing): Dunbeholden 1.09 — Mount Pleasant Academy 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.3% · Implied: 48.0% · Probability edge: +5.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Dunbeholden & Mount Pleasant Academy!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tru-Juice 3 2 1 0 7
2 Montego Bay United 3 2 1 0 7
3 Waterhouse 2 2 0 0 6
4 Cavalier 2 2 0 0 6
5 Racing United 3 2 0 1 6
6 Tivoli Gardens 3 1 2 0 5
7 Chapelton 3 1 1 1 4
8 Portmore United 1 1 0 0 3
9 Arnett Gardens 3 1 0 2 3
10 Molynes United 3 1 0 2 3
11 Mount Pleasant Academy 3 1 0 2 3
12 Treasure Beach 3 0 1 2 1
13 Dunbeholden 3 0 0 3 0
14 Humble Lions 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Waterhouse 2 7 0 +7 6
2 Arnett Gardens 3 7 6 +1 3
3 Tru-Juice 3 5 0 +5 7
4 Tivoli Gardens 3 5 2 +3 5
5 Cavalier 2 5 3 +2 6
6 Portmore United 1 4 1 +3 3
7 Racing United 3 4 3 +1 6
8 Molynes United 3 4 5 -1 3
9 Montego Bay United 3 3 0 +3 7
10 Chapelton 3 3 4 -1 4
11 Treasure Beach 3 3 6 -3 1
12 Mount Pleasant Academy 3 2 5 -3 3
13 Dunbeholden 3 1 7 -6 0
14 Humble Lions 3 1 12 -11 0