Statistics / Football / Albania. Cup / FK Kukesi vs Erzeni Shijak

FK Kukesi vs Erzeni Shijak Statistics & Analysis

FK Kukesi FK Kukesi
Oct 07, 2026 - 11:30
3 1.41
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 52%
Erzeni Shijak Erzeni Shijak
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Kukesi FK Kukesi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12183810

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Kukesi win · FK Kukesi 3–2 Erzeni Shijak
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: FK Kukesi vs Erzeni Shijak
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): FK Kukesi 1.41 — Erzeni Shijak 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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