Statistics / Football / Uruguay. Segunda División / Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito

Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito Statistics & Analysis

Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia
Oct 04, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.46
3 1.14
xG Accuracy: 53%
Cerrito Cerrito
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Plaza Colonia Cerrito ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11687225

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cerrito win · Plaza Colonia 1–3 Cerrito
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Plaza Colonia vs Cerrito
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Plaza Colonia 1.46 — Cerrito 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.7% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +9.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Oriental 6 4 1 1 13
2 Plaza Colonia 6 3 3 0 12
3 Fenix 6 3 2 1 11
4 Sportivo Huracan 6 2 4 0 10
5 Colón 6 2 3 1 9
6 Uruguay Montevideo 6 2 3 1 9
7 Rentistas 6 2 3 1 9
8 Cerrito 6 2 3 1 9
9 La Luz 6 1 4 1 7
10 Miramar 6 1 2 3 5
11 Paysandu 6 1 1 4 4
12 Atenas 6 1 1 4 4
13 CA River Plate 6 1 1 4 4
14 Tacuarembo 6 0 3 3 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenix 6 13 7 +6 11
2 Plaza Colonia 6 9 2 +7 12
3 Sportivo Huracan 6 9 6 +3 10
4 Oriental 6 8 5 +3 13
5 Colón 6 8 5 +3 9
6 Cerrito 6 8 8 0 9
7 Uruguay Montevideo 6 7 5 +2 9
8 Rentistas 6 6 5 +1 9
9 CA River Plate 6 6 13 -7 4
10 La Luz 6 5 6 -1 7
11 Tacuarembo 6 5 9 -4 3
12 Atenas 6 5 11 -6 4
13 Paysandu 6 4 7 -3 4
14 Miramar 6 3 7 -4 5
Segunda División Uruguay. Segunda División Predictions