Statistics / Football / Burkina-Faso. Ligue 1 / Douanes vs Sporting Cascades

Douanes vs Sporting Cascades Statistics & Analysis

Douanes Douanes
Sep 27, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sporting Cascades Sporting Cascades
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Douanes Sporting Cascades ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10982140

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Cascades win · Douanes 0–1 Sporting Cascades
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Douanes vs Sporting Cascades
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Douanes 1.31 — Sporting Cascades 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +15.3 pts · Est. EV: +30.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 USFA 3 3 0 0 9
2 Rahimo 4 3 0 1 9
3 FocuSport 4 3 0 1 9
4 Vitesse 4 2 2 0 8
5 ASFA-Yennenga 3 2 0 1 6
6 Majestic 4 2 0 2 6
7 SONABEL 4 2 0 2 6
8 Réal du Faso 3 1 1 1 4
9 Maya 3 1 1 1 4
10 ASFB 4 1 1 2 4
11 Comoé 4 1 1 2 4
12 Sporting Cascades 4 1 1 2 4
13 CFFEB 4 1 1 2 4
14 Douanes 3 1 0 2 3
15 RCK 3 0 1 2 1
16 Salitas 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rahimo 4 9 5 +4 9
2 FocuSport 4 8 8 0 9
3 SONABEL 4 7 4 +3 6
4 USFA 3 6 0 +6 9
5 Vitesse 4 6 3 +3 8
6 Réal du Faso 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ASFA-Yennenga 3 3 1 +2 6
8 Majestic 4 3 4 -1 6
9 ASFB 4 3 5 -2 4
10 Sporting Cascades 4 3 6 -3 4
11 Salitas 4 3 9 -6 1
12 Maya 3 2 2 0 4
13 CFFEB 4 2 3 -1 4
14 Douanes 3 2 3 -1 3
15 RCK 3 2 5 -3 1
16 Comoé 4 1 3 -2 4