Tunisia U20 vs Morocco U20 Statistics & Analysis

Tunisia U20

Sep 27, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 49%

Morocco U20

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Morocco U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 00:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10747471

Closing Odds 1.89

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Tunisia U20 0–0 Morocco U20

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.45 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tunisia U20 (1X2) by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tunisia U20 (1X2)	32.9	23.9	+9.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.3	+1.2
Morocco U20 (1X2)	37.6	47.8	-10.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	43.9	+4.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	56.1	-4.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Tunisia U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.9%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Tunisia U20 (1X2)	3.6	3.78	-0.9
Draw (1X2)	3.5	3.19	+2.8
Morocco U20 (1X2)	1.8	1.89	-1.9
Over 2.5 goals	2.0	2.12	-3.5
Under 2.5 goals	1.8	1.66	+3.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Africa Cup of Nations U20
Fixture: Tunisia U20 vs Morocco U20
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Tunisia U20 1.25 — Morocco U20 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 50.0% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +2.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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