Statistics / Football / World. South American Youth Games / Chile U19 vs Peru U19

Chile U19 vs Peru U19 Statistics & Analysis

Chile U19 Chile U19
Sep 25, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Peru U19 Peru U19
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chile U19 Peru U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10751879

Closing Odds 3.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Peru U19 win · Chile U19 1–2 Peru U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Peru U19 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Peru U19 (1X2) by about 7.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Chile U19 (1X2) 36.1 42.9 -6.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 30.3 -0.6
Peru U19 (1X2) 34.2 26.8 +7.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.7 +6.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.3 -6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Peru U19 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.8%. The difference — about 7.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Chile U19 (1X2) 2.11 2.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.99 2.99 0.0
Peru U19 (1X2) 3.38 3.38 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.24 2.24 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: South American Youth Games
  • Fixture: Chile U19 vs Peru U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Chile U19 1.32 — Peru U19 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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