Timor-Leste vs Cambodia Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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FIFA Asean Cup — Standings

Timor-Leste

Sep 30, 2026 - 09:00

2 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 68%

Cambodia

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Timor-Leste Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10583996

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Timor-Leste 2–2 Cambodia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FIFA Asean Cup
Fixture: Timor-Leste vs Cambodia
Kickoff: 2026-09-30 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Timor-Leste 1.32 — Cambodia 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.6% · Probability edge: +11.2 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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