Bedford Town vs Wingate & Finchley Statistics & Analysis

Bedford Town

Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.29

2 1.31

xG Accuracy: 68%

Wingate & Finchley

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Wingate & Finchley Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11247293

Closing Odds 1.57

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Bedford Town 2–2 Wingate & Finchley

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Wingate & Finchley (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bedford Town (1X2)	34.7	56.5	-21.8
Draw (1X2)	29.7	20.6	+9.0
Wingate & Finchley (1X2)	35.6	22.8	+12.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	65.8	-17.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	34.2	+17.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.2%. The difference — about 17.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Bedford Town (1X2)	1.57	1.57
Draw (1X2)	4.3	4.3
Wingate & Finchley (1X2)	3.89	3.89
Over 2.5 goals	1.39	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	2.67	2.67

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FA Cup
Fixture: Bedford Town vs Wingate & Finchley
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Bedford Town 1.29 — Wingate & Finchley 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.8% · Probability edge: +17.0 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Bedford Town & Wingate & Finchley!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics