Statistics / Football / Uruguay. Primera División - Apertura / Racing Montevideo vs Penarol

Racing Montevideo vs Penarol Statistics & Analysis

Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
Oct 04, 2026 - 22:30
0 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Penarol Penarol
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Penarol Penarol ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11688838

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Penarol win · Racing Montevideo 0–1 Penarol
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División - Apertura - Apertura
  • Fixture: Racing Montevideo vs Penarol
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Racing Montevideo 1.29 — Penarol 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Racing Montevideo & Penarol!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Primera División - Apertura Primera División - Apertura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Penarol 31 19 6 6 62
2 Deportivo Maldonado 31 17 7 7 58
3 Atletico Torque 31 16 6 9 54
4 Racing Montevideo 31 14 11 6 53
5 Club Nacional 31 16 4 11 52
6 Wanderers 31 14 8 9 50
7 Liverpool Montevideo 31 13 10 8 49
8 Central Espanol 31 10 8 13 38
9 Albion FC 31 10 7 14 37
10 Juventud 31 9 10 12 37
11 Defensor Sporting 31 8 11 12 35
12 Cerro Largo 31 8 9 14 33
13 Cerro 31 9 6 16 33
14 Boston River 31 8 7 16 31
15 Danubio 31 5 14 12 29
16 Progreso 31 8 4 19 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atletico Torque 31 52 37 +15 54
2 Penarol 31 50 25 +25 62
3 Deportivo Maldonado 31 49 27 +22 58
4 Club Nacional 31 47 38 +9 52
5 Liverpool Montevideo 31 42 30 +12 49
6 Albion FC 31 41 42 -1 37
7 Wanderers 31 40 36 +4 50
8 Racing Montevideo 31 36 25 +11 53
9 Juventud 31 35 39 -4 37
10 Central Espanol 31 32 42 -10 38
11 Cerro Largo 31 29 36 -7 33
12 Boston River 31 29 42 -13 31
13 Defensor Sporting 31 28 36 -8 35
14 Progreso 31 27 46 -19 28
15 Danubio 31 26 40 -14 29
16 Cerro 31 23 45 -22 33
Primera División - Apertura Uruguay. Primera División - Apertura Predictions