Statistics / Football / Uruguay. Primera División - Apertura / Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso Statistics & Analysis

Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 52%
Progreso Progreso
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11247228

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Liverpool Montevideo win · Liverpool Montevideo 3–2 Progreso
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División - Apertura - Apertura
  • Fixture: Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Liverpool Montevideo 1.39 — Progreso 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División - Apertura Primera División - Apertura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Penarol 31 19 6 6 62
2 Deportivo Maldonado 32 17 8 7 59
3 Atletico Torque 32 17 6 9 57
4 Racing Montevideo 31 14 11 6 53
5 Club Nacional 31 16 4 11 52
6 Liverpool Montevideo 32 13 11 8 50
7 Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
8 Central Espanol 31 10 8 13 38
9 Albion FC 31 10 7 14 37
10 Juventud 31 9 10 12 37
11 Cerro 32 10 6 16 36
12 Defensor Sporting 32 8 11 13 35
13 Boston River 32 9 7 16 34
14 Cerro Largo 31 8 9 14 33
15 Danubio 32 5 14 13 29
16 Progreso 31 8 4 19 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atletico Torque 32 53 37 +16 57
2 Penarol 31 50 25 +25 62
3 Deportivo Maldonado 32 50 28 +22 59
4 Club Nacional 31 47 38 +9 52
5 Liverpool Montevideo 32 43 31 +12 50
6 Wanderers 32 41 39 +2 50
7 Albion FC 31 41 42 -1 37
8 Racing Montevideo 31 36 25 +11 53
9 Juventud 31 35 39 -4 37
10 Central Espanol 31 32 42 -10 38
11 Boston River 32 32 43 -11 34
12 Defensor Sporting 32 30 39 -9 35
13 Cerro Largo 31 29 36 -7 33
14 Progreso 31 27 46 -19 28
15 Danubio 32 26 41 -15 29
16 Cerro 32 26 47 -21 36
Primera División - Apertura Uruguay. Primera División - Apertura Predictions