Santa Fe W vs Deportivo Cali W Statistics & Analysis

Santa Fe W

Sep 24, 2026 - 00:00

2 1.23

3 1.37

xG Accuracy: 52%

Deportivo Cali W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Deportivo Cali W Deportivo Cali W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10414243

Closing Odds 3.08

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo Cali W win · Santa Fe W 2–3 Deportivo Cali W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Deportivo Cali W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Santa Fe W (1X2)	31.9	32.0	-0.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	39.2	-9.6
Deportivo Cali W (1X2)	38.5	28.9	+9.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	32.8	+15.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	67.2	-15.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.8%. The difference — about 15.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Santa Fe W (1X2)	2.78	2.78
Draw (1X2)	2.27	2.27
Deportivo Cali W (1X2)	3.08	3.08
Over 2.5 goals	2.79	2.79
Under 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Femenina
Fixture: Santa Fe W vs Deportivo Cali W
Kickoff: 2026-09-24 00:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): Santa Fe W 1.23 — Deportivo Cali W 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.6% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +35.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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