Penarol vs Boston River Statistics & Analysis

Penarol

Sep 26, 2026 - 21:30

2 1.46

1 1.14

xG Accuracy: 83%

Boston River

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Penarol Penarol ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10411954

Closing Odds 1.48

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Penarol win · Penarol 2–1 Boston River

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Boston River (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Boston River (1X2) by about 13.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Penarol (1X2)	42.9	64.3	-21.4
Draw (1X2)	29.2	21.5	+7.7
Boston River (1X2)	27.9	14.2	+13.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.4	-2.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	49.6	+2.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.9% on Boston River (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.2%. The difference — about 13.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Penarol (1X2)	1.48	1.48
Draw (1X2)	4.42	4.42
Boston River (1X2)	6.72	6.72
Over 2.5 goals	1.9	1.9
Under 2.5 goals	1.93	1.93

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División - Apertura - Apertura
Fixture: Penarol vs Boston River
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): Penarol 1.46 — Boston River 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División - Apertura — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Penarol	29	18	5	6	58
2	Deportivo Maldonado	30	16	7	7	55
3	Atletico Torque	29	16	5	8	53
4	Racing Montevideo	30	14	11	5	53
5	Club Nacional	30	15	4	11	49
6	Liverpool Montevideo	30	12	10	8	46
7	Wanderers	29	12	8	9	44
8	Central Espanol	30	10	8	12	38
9	Juventud	30	9	9	12	36
10	Albion FC	29	9	7	13	34
11	Cerro Largo	30	8	9	13	33
12	Cerro	30	9	6	15	33
13	Defensor Sporting	29	7	11	11	32
14	Boston River	30	8	6	16	30
15	Progreso	30	8	4	18	28
16	Danubio	29	4	14	11	26

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Atletico Torque	29	51	34	+17	53
2	Penarol	29	48	24	+24	58
3	Deportivo Maldonado	30	46	27	+19	55
4	Club Nacional	30	45	38	+7	49
5	Liverpool Montevideo	30	39	28	+11	46
6	Albion FC	29	37	38	-1	34
7	Racing Montevideo	30	36	24	+12	53
8	Wanderers	29	36	35	+1	44
9	Juventud	30	35	39	-4	36
10	Central Espanol	30	32	39	-7	38
11	Boston River	30	29	42	-13	30
12	Cerro Largo	30	28	34	-6	33
13	Defensor Sporting	29	25	33	-8	32
14	Progreso	30	25	43	-18	28
15	Danubio	29	24	38	-14	26
16	Cerro	30	23	43	-20	33