Progreso vs Racing Montevideo Statistics & Analysis

Progreso

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.18

1 1.42

xG Accuracy: 71%

Racing Montevideo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Racing Montevideo Progreso ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10410795

Closing Odds 2.01

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Progreso win · Progreso 2–1 Racing Montevideo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Progreso (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Progreso (1X2)	29.6	24.4	+5.2
Draw (1X2)	29.4	28.2	+1.1
Racing Montevideo (1X2)	41.0	47.4	-6.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	40.9	+7.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	59.1	-7.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.9%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Progreso (1X2)	3.9	3.9
Draw (1X2)	3.37	3.37
Racing Montevideo (1X2)	2.01	2.01
Over 2.5 goals	2.34	2.34
Under 2.5 goals	1.62	1.62

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera División - Apertura - Apertura
Fixture: Progreso vs Racing Montevideo
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Progreso 1.18 — Racing Montevideo 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.1% · Implied: 46.7% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División - Apertura — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Penarol	29	18	5	6	58
2	Atletico Torque	28	16	5	7	53
3	Racing Montevideo	30	14	11	5	53
4	Deportivo Maldonado	29	15	7	7	52
5	Club Nacional	30	15	4	11	49
6	Wanderers	29	12	8	9	44
7	Liverpool Montevideo	29	11	10	8	43
8	Central Espanol	29	10	8	11	38
9	Juventud	29	9	8	12	35
10	Albion FC	29	9	7	13	34
11	Cerro Largo	30	8	9	13	33
12	Defensor Sporting	29	7	11	11	32
13	Cerro	29	9	5	15	32
14	Boston River	30	8	6	16	30
15	Progreso	30	8	4	18	28
16	Danubio	29	4	14	11	26

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Atletico Torque	28	51	32	+19	53
2	Penarol	29	48	24	+24	58
3	Club Nacional	30	45	38	+7	49
4	Deportivo Maldonado	29	44	27	+17	52
5	Liverpool Montevideo	29	37	27	+10	43
6	Albion FC	29	37	38	-1	34
7	Racing Montevideo	30	36	24	+12	53
8	Wanderers	29	36	35	+1	44
9	Juventud	29	35	39	-4	35
10	Central Espanol	29	31	37	-6	38
11	Boston River	30	29	42	-13	30
12	Cerro Largo	30	28	34	-6	33
13	Defensor Sporting	29	25	33	-8	32
14	Progreso	30	25	43	-18	28
15	Danubio	29	24	38	-14	26
16	Cerro	29	23	43	-20	32