Kettering Town vs Worcester City Statistics & Analysis

Kettering Town

Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.37

3 1.23

xG Accuracy: 56%

Worcester City

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Kettering Town Worcester City ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11246751

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Worcester City win · Kettering Town 1–3 Worcester City

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FA Cup
Fixture: Kettering Town vs Worcester City
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Kettering Town 1.37 — Worcester City 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +10.2 pts · Est. EV: +22.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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