Atletico Nacional vs Chapecoense-sc Statistics & Analysis

Atletico Nacional

Sep 26, 2026 - 20:30

1 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 85%

Chapecoense-sc

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Atletico Nacional Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10411871

Closing Odds 2.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Atletico Nacional 1–1 Chapecoense-sc

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Chapecoense-sc (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atletico Nacional (1X2)	38.4	43.9	-5.4
Draw (1X2)	27.8	23.5	+4.3
Chapecoense-sc (1X2)	33.8	32.6	+1.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	65.1	-16.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	34.9	+16.9
BTTS Yes	53.6	66.2	-12.6
BTTS No	46.4	33.8	+12.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.9%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Atletico Nacional (1X2)	2.12	2.12
Draw (1X2)	3.95	3.95
Chapecoense-sc (1X2)	2.85	2.85
Over 2.5 goals	1.39	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	2.59	2.59
BTTS Yes	1.39	1.39
BTTS No	2.72	2.72

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Atletico Nacional vs Chapecoense-sc
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.4% · Draw 27.8% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Atletico Nacional 1.35 — Chapecoense-sc 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.2% · Probability edge: +15.6 pts · Est. EV: +32.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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