El Salvador W vs Paraguay W Statistics & Analysis

El Salvador W

Oct 10, 2026 - 01:30

1 1.41

5 1.19

xG Accuracy: 31%

Paraguay W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 El Salvador W Paraguay W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13181748

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Paraguay W win · El Salvador W 1–5 Paraguay W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies Women
Fixture: El Salvador W vs Paraguay W
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 01:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): El Salvador W 1.41 — Paraguay W 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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