Statistics / Football / World. Friendlies Women / Vanuatu W vs New Caledonia W

Vanuatu W vs New Caledonia W Statistics & Analysis

Vanuatu W Vanuatu W
Sep 23, 2026 - 04:00
5 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 24%
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New Caledonia W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 New Caledonia W Vanuatu W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10413333

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vanuatu W win · Vanuatu W 5–0 New Caledonia W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Women
  • Fixture: Vanuatu W vs New Caledonia W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-23 04:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Vanuatu W 1.23 — New Caledonia W 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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