Korea DPR U20 vs Colombia U20 W Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

Market intelligence

AI match briefing

Model Performance

Market briefing

Model vs. closing implied

Closing-window line move

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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World Cup - U20 - Women — Standings

Korea DPR U20

Sep 23, 2026 - 16:30

3 1.47

0 1.13

xG Accuracy: 48%

Colombia U20 W

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Korea DPR U20 Korea DPR U20 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10246784

Closing Odds 1.09

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Korea DPR U20 win · Korea DPR U20 3–0 Colombia U20 W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Colombia U20 W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Colombia U20 W (1X2) by about 23.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Korea DPR U20 (1X2)	43.3	87.0	-43.7
Draw (1X2)	29.2	9.4	+19.7
Colombia U20 W (1X2)	27.5	3.5	+23.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.6	-13.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.4	+13.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Colombia U20 W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 3.5%. The difference — about 23.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Korea DPR U20 (1X2)	1.09	1.09
Draw (1X2)	10.03	10.03
Colombia U20 W (1X2)	26.68	26.68
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.45	2.45

Model favours Korea DPR U20; market prices Korea DPR U20 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Korea DPR U20 1.47 xG vs Colombia U20 W 1.13 → Korea DPR U20 43.4%
Market: Korea DPR U20 ~87.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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