Ukraine U21 vs Albania U21 Statistics & Analysis

Ukraine U21

Oct 05, 2026 - 13:30

2 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 68%

Albania U21

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ukraine U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11670950

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Ukraine U21 2–2 Albania U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.77 percentage points on Ukraine U21 (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Albania U21 (1X2) by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ukraine U21 (1X2)	35.6	52.8	-17.2
Draw (1X2)	29.7	23.6	+6.1
Albania U21 (1X2)	34.7	23.6	+11.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Albania U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.6%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE5 · Book: bet365 → bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE5)	Implied Δ (pp)
Ukraine U21 (1X2)	1.73	1.7	+0.8
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.8	-0.1
Albania U21 (1X2)	3.7	3.8	-0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies
Fixture: Ukraine U21 vs Albania U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-05 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Ukraine U21 1.31 — Albania U21 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Ukraine U21 & Albania U21!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics