Statistics / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / Widad Témara vs UTS Rabat

Widad Témara vs UTS Rabat Statistics & Analysis

Widad Témara Widad Témara
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
UTS Rabat UTS Rabat
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 UTS Rabat UTS Rabat ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10979156

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result UTS Rabat win · Widad Témara 0–1 UTS Rabat
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Widad Témara (1X2), UTS Rabat (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Widad Témara (1X2) 34.7 32.8 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 29.7 40.0 -10.3
UTS Rabat (1X2) 35.6 27.2 +8.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 32.6 +15.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 67.4 -15.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.6%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Widad Témara (1X2) 2.79 2.79 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.29 2.29 0.0
UTS Rabat (1X2) 3.37 3.37 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.85 2.85 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: Widad Témara vs UTS Rabat
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Widad Témara 1.29 — UTS Rabat 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 34.4% · Probability edge: +13.8 pts · Est. EV: +37.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 2 2 0 0 6
2 UTS Rabat 2 2 0 0 6
3 Ittihad Tanger 2 1 1 0 4
4 CODM Meknès 2 1 0 1 3
5 Widad Témara 2 1 0 1 3
6 Kawkab Marrakech 2 1 0 1 3
7 Wydad AC 2 1 0 1 3
8 Raja Casablanca 1 1 0 0 3
9 Hassania Agadir 2 1 0 1 3
10 Amal Tiznit 2 1 0 1 3
11 Moghreb Tetouan 2 0 2 0 2
12 Renaissance Berkane 1 0 1 0 1
13 FAR Rabat 0 0 0 0 0
14 FUS Rabat 2 0 0 2 0
15 CR Khemis Zemamra 2 0 0 2 0
16 Difaa EL Jadida 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CODM Meknès 2 6 3 +3 3
2 Maghreb Fès 2 4 2 +2 6
3 Ittihad Tanger 2 4 2 +2 4
4 Hassania Agadir 2 4 4 0 3
5 UTS Rabat 2 3 1 +2 6
6 Widad Témara 2 3 2 +1 3
7 Kawkab Marrakech 2 3 3 0 3
8 Wydad AC 2 3 3 0 3
9 Amal Tiznit 2 2 3 -1 3
10 Difaa EL Jadida 2 2 8 -6 0
11 Raja Casablanca 1 1 0 +1 3
12 Moghreb Tetouan 2 1 1 0 2
13 FUS Rabat 2 1 3 -2 0
14 CR Khemis Zemamra 2 1 3 -2 0
15 Renaissance Berkane 1 0 0 0 1
16 FAR Rabat 0 0 0 0 0